The 14th Five-Year Plan has established the development trend and strategy of hydrogen energy in China, and the current policy is expected to promote the continuous improvement of hydrogen energy coverage. Looking back at the historical progress of China's new energy technology, we think that the time point of hydrogen energy is similar to the eve of the lithium explosion in 2010. In the future, China is expected to copy the success of the whole industry chain of lithium in the hydrogen energy industry and step into a new height of green energy reform.

Hydrogen energy, as a clean and zero-carbon secondary energy, plays a key role in the future new energy reform and innovation. The development trend of hydrogen energy has become an international consensus, which is of key practical significance to achieve the overall goal of 3060 dual carbon in China.

In early 2021, hydrogen energy was announced in the 14th Five-year Plan. The central and regional municipal governments often issue the current policies on hydrogen energy and establish the strategic plans and development strategies for hydrogen energy development in the 14th and 5th periods.

At present, non-renewable resources are mainly used in electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen. Electrolysis of water hydrogen production is the future development orientation. Cost is the primary factor that restricts the further improvement of hydrogen production coverage rate from electrolytic water. The cost of hydrogen production from water electrolysis is expected to be greatly reduced with the significant reduction of the cost of solar power generation, wind power generation and other renewable resources, the continuous progress of the application of software technology of electrolysis system and the precise positioning and industrialization of the cost of electrostatic precipitator equipment. It is estimated that the proportion of electrolytic water hydrogen production will increase from less than 1% now to 70% in 2050, and the market capacity of electrolytic system software is expected to exceed 700 billion.

At present, high pressure steam storage and transportation is widely used in storage and transportation. Liquid hydrogen storage and transportation has significant cost advantages in large-scale long-distance storage and transportation. The development trend of liquid hydrogen storage and transportation technology will reduce the cost of liquid hydrogen storage and transportation. It is estimated that the cost of liquid hydrogen storage and transportation will be reduced to 50% of the current level by 2050, and large-scale liquid hydrogen storage and transportation will be completed for civilian use.

At the present stage, the basic construction technology of hydrogenation station in China tends to be improved, and the domestic production and manufacturing are completed. At present, there are 141 hydrogenation stations in China, and the total number of hydrogenation stations will reach 12,000 in 2050, with the market capacity exceeding 100 billion YUAN. The policy subsidies and technological progress in the early stage and the reduction of the cost of hydrogenation stations resulting from economies of scale are the important driving factors to improve the coverage rate of hydrogenation stations.

At present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are in the starting stage, mainly hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell new energy buses share less than 0.1%. It is estimated that the total number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will increase from 7352 units in 2020 to 100,000 units in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 68% and a market capacity of 80 billion YUAN. The cost balance between the total life cycle cost (TCO) of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the market competitive products such as pure electric vehicles will be the major turning point to increase the market penetration rate of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the future. The diligence of the policy subsidy will greatly encourage the progress of the automobile sales market.